***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 17.9 17.4 0.6 62.1 60.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.1 17.2 0.6 61.6 60.2 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.4 17.6 0.7 63.2 61.2 16.7 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.9 15.5 0.5 59.8 58.1 9.2 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.7 16.1 0.7 63.6 61.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 14.3 0.7 62.5 60.0 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.8 17.1 0.5 60.6 59.3 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.3 14.6 0.7 63.5 61.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.3 16.7 0.8 64.7 62.0 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.3 15.5 0.8 63.7 61.2 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 18.8 18.6 15.9 0.8 65.0 62.1 16.7 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.7 15.5 0.8 64.3 61.5 15.7 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.5 15.1 0.7 63.0 60.5 16.7 17.7 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.2 16.4 0.6 60.5 58.9 16.6 17.6 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 15.8 0.4 57.4 56.3 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 19.2 18.9 15.5 0.7 63.5 60.9 17.0 18.1 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.2 16.8 0.5 59.4 58.5 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.8 14.8 0.7 61.7 59.6 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.0 17.4 0.6 62.5 60.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.6 12.5 0.6 61.1 59.0 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.4 17.3 0.7 63.5 61.2 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.0 16.9 0.5 59.6 58.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.3 17.4 0.7 62.8 60.9 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.1 16.4 0.7 62.1 60.1 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 15.9 0.4 58.6 57.4 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.8 14.6 0.7 63.5 60.9 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.0 16.6 0.5 59.1 57.8 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.3 15.8 0.5 60.2 58.4 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.6 13.8 0.7 61.2 59.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.0 17.4 0.6 62.3 60.6 16.4 17.4 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------