***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.6 9.2 67.7 49.8 44.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.8 8.5 72.2 51.9 46.5 2.1 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.7 4.5 9.3 70.5 49.8 43.8 1.9 4.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.0 11.4 75.6 49.9 45.0 3.7 7.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.5 4.7 10.9 71.4 46.8 41.5 2.5 5.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.2 11.2 69.2 44.4 40.6 3.5 6.2 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.8 9.4 78.8 54.6 49.3 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.5 10.4 62.4 39.7 35.8 4.0 8.3 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 3.8 10.9 73.3 48.6 42.5 2.0 4.0 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.9 11.3 67.3 44.2 39.0 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.0 9.1 63.0 42.3 37.1 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.0 8.3 56.3 36.7 33.0 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.9 10.0 63.8 40.5 36.8 3.8 6.5 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.0 10.3 62.3 44.1 38.9 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.7 6.1 11.0 76.2 51.4 45.4 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.4 9.9 67.4 42.9 38.2 3.2 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.6 9.7 82.5 56.8 51.6 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.2 12.4 67.0 44.0 38.9 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.3 8.6 70.4 50.5 45.2 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.2 14.0 71.0 45.1 40.3 3.5 6.0 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.3 10.4 74.1 50.1 44.8 2.0 4.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.9 4.9 8.8 72.3 51.7 47.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.9 9.4 70.8 49.1 43.6 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.6 11.5 70.4 47.4 41.7 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.2 11.4 70.8 49.3 44.7 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.6 9.8 61.0 37.7 34.2 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.8 10.7 69.7 50.6 45.2 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.7 11.0 77.5 50.7 44.9 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.2 12.8 66.4 43.2 38.7 3.4 6.7 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.0 8.4 68.9 50.4 44.7 1.9 3.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------