***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 9.5 10.2 87.6 58.4 46.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.2 9.6 79.0 54.0 46.2 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.7 10.9 91.0 58.3 47.6 5.2 9.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.8 21.6 14.7 114.0 67.6 53.0 10.2 15.0 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.8 18.4 13.9 108.2 65.8 52.6 7.3 12.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.1 18.2 21.4 134.9 74.1 59.9 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.5 9.5 76.8 53.2 45.7 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.9 26.3 15.6 112.0 67.0 54.7 11.6 18.0 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.3 14.4 13.1 101.6 63.3 51.0 5.9 10.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.3 20.6 15.3 107.7 65.3 53.6 9.3 14.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.8 18.0 13.6 114.8 68.2 53.7 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.8 13.6 114.8 68.1 53.5 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.1 19.1 16.6 120.7 69.9 55.9 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 19.2 15.0 102.1 62.8 53.5 8.3 13.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.7 14.9 115.6 67.9 52.3 4.5 8.6 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.8 15.2 119.9 69.7 55.0 6.9 11.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.7 9.3 77.1 53.7 44.9 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.6 17.3 17.7 106.8 64.6 54.4 8.8 12.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.4 10.2 84.0 55.5 47.3 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 15.6 20.1 106.5 64.6 55.7 6.6 10.8 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.5 11.6 97.6 61.6 48.6 5.5 9.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.1 9.7 82.1 54.7 46.6 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 11.2 90.2 57.7 48.7 6.1 10.6 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.9 15.9 15.1 102.3 62.8 52.4 7.3 11.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.3 13.7 100.5 62.6 50.3 5.5 9.4 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.8 17.9 15.9 124.6 71.2 55.0 6.4 10.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.3 12.2 90.6 59.3 48.0 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 18.2 15.3 120.9 70.0 54.2 5.6 10.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.3 23.7 18.5 106.1 64.5 54.8 11.5 17.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.5 8.7 9.8 80.5 53.8 45.6 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------