***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 12.4 10.5 84.9 55.8 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.5 9.1 11.8 92.7 58.9 46.3 5.0 7.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.1 13.7 11.5 86.1 56.5 45.2 7.2 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.0 19.3 13.9 87.2 57.6 46.6 10.8 16.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 7.9 15.1 13.2 85.5 57.1 46.2 7.5 12.5 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.1 13.2 15.9 81.9 52.9 45.3 8.0 12.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.7 11.4 91.0 57.9 46.4 4.2 7.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.5 22.0 13.4 76.7 50.9 43.7 14.9 21.7 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.8 14.3 13.0 84.3 56.5 46.0 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 13.8 14.4 79.2 52.5 44.6 7.9 12.9 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.1 11.8 79.5 53.6 43.2 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.5 13.6 10.7 77.8 52.4 43.0 8.5 12.8 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 15.2 13.0 81.8 53.4 44.4 8.8 13.9 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.3 17.1 16.1 97.7 61.5 49.7 8.0 12.9 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.8 13.0 85.3 57.1 46.5 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.1 13.2 12.5 80.8 53.5 43.6 6.4 11.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.3 11.9 90.5 58.1 47.1 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 13.2 16.2 78.6 51.9 45.0 8.3 12.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.1 12.0 93.6 59.6 46.6 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 12.6 18.6 82.5 53.1 47.5 7.6 11.8 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.4 14.3 11.7 86.8 57.8 46.1 7.2 11.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.3 12.4 94.6 60.4 48.5 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.6 11.7 12.6 95.6 61.1 48.2 5.6 8.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.7 15.1 14.6 84.0 55.3 46.1 8.4 13.3 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.5 14.6 13.8 89.7 57.9 47.1 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.0 11.7 82.9 54.0 44.4 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.1 13.0 12.8 89.1 57.1 46.3 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.0 12.3 13.8 86.0 57.4 46.6 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.0 18.8 16.9 81.0 53.1 46.3 11.8 17.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.8 11.3 90.5 57.8 45.5 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------