***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 11.3 12.1 102.9 64.3 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.1 12.0 101.7 63.5 50.2 3.8 7.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.3 12.8 10.8 91.6 59.4 46.2 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 16.1 13.3 102.3 64.1 51.0 7.5 11.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.6 13.2 101.3 63.9 50.4 4.7 8.3 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.7 16.7 99.6 62.2 49.5 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.4 12.8 108.7 65.8 52.5 4.6 8.0 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.5 20.1 14.9 99.0 62.1 49.2 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.8 13.2 99.4 63.2 48.9 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.2 14.9 95.6 60.9 48.2 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.6 12.9 103.0 64.1 48.9 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.8 12.5 103.4 64.4 49.6 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.5 14.2 103.1 63.6 49.9 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.6 12.9 14.1 91.2 58.9 46.1 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.1 12.5 103.5 65.3 50.2 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.2 13.1 102.1 63.3 48.8 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.4 12.3 105.0 64.7 51.7 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.0 15.8 88.3 57.1 46.0 6.6 11.5 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.4 11.3 94.9 60.9 47.5 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.0 18.6 97.2 60.5 49.6 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.5 11.7 98.5 63.2 49.3 4.4 7.4 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.9 11.0 12.5 106.4 64.9 50.4 4.3 7.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.1 10.9 87.8 58.2 44.9 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.7 13.4 87.4 57.1 44.7 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 14.0 14.5 105.1 64.7 50.8 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.3 12.3 97.1 61.6 49.6 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.6 14.9 14.4 105.8 64.9 50.6 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.8 12.8 101.0 63.8 50.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 16.4 16.3 89.1 57.1 46.7 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.4 11.8 100.5 63.0 49.7 5.2 8.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------