***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 33.5 42.0 85.1 43.5 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 41.6 32.7 41.9 86.4 43.9 42.3 26.4 36.4 48.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 33.9 41.2 42.5 84.5 41.7 40.3 35.6 47.2 60.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 67.3 62.4 53.3 93.6 51.4 46.8 50.3 61.4 73.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 55.9 46.6 51.1 90.5 48.0 44.5 34.5 48.2 64.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 51.7 47.1 65.2 95.5 51.0 46.3 36.5 46.6 57.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 41.1 32.4 43.1 88.6 45.6 43.9 24.6 35.3 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 66.9 74.0 54.3 86.1 41.9 40.0 67.6 79.8 92.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 49.9 41.4 50.3 88.9 46.2 43.1 33.0 43.9 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 60.2 48.0 55.9 86.3 42.3 40.3 41.8 53.6 66.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 52.9 44.4 47.3 88.4 46.0 42.7 36.1 47.0 59.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 37.3 43.9 45.1 86.0 42.9 40.3 38.5 47.8 58.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 40.6 49.8 53.8 91.0 46.6 43.8 41.1 52.0 64.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 40.3 50.0 55.4 87.8 45.3 43.6 41.5 53.3 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 48.4 43.6 51.4 94.0 51.7 46.5 30.6 42.4 56.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 53.6 46.1 50.8 91.0 47.6 43.8 36.4 47.7 59.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 41.3 34.0 43.1 88.7 46.1 44.3 26.8 36.4 47.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 55.4 43.9 62.2 84.4 40.0 39.0 39.8 50.1 61.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 45.2 34.0 42.0 85.8 43.5 42.1 26.7 38.7 52.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 52.9 44.5 71.3 88.7 44.1 42.4 38.0 48.2 59.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 29.8 38.4 45.3 88.5 46.1 42.9 30.3 41.1 53.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 41.6 33.7 43.4 88.7 46.1 44.2 25.7 36.4 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 43.7 34.3 44.0 86.0 44.3 42.7 27.6 38.1 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 39.5 46.0 54.5 85.5 42.2 40.9 40.1 51.4 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 35.2 46.6 53.4 90.6 47.2 43.7 37.2 48.4 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 33.7 42.2 49.7 89.4 45.1 42.5 35.7 44.8 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 31.1 41.3 50.0 88.2 45.0 42.2 32.4 45.2 59.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 50.3 47.6 53.0 95.2 52.7 47.6 36.4 45.9 56.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 75.8 61.5 64.5 85.0 41.0 39.9 55.3 68.8 82.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.9 33.0 41.3 85.0 42.4 41.0 28.1 37.1 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------