***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 2.5 2.4 -2.5 13.1 18.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 3.4 2.1 1.5 -3.3 6.4 11.8 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 5.9 5.0 2.2 -2.5 11.8 17.7 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 0.0 -0.1 0.9 -1.5 24.5 28.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.2 2.5 1.7 -1.1 30.6 34.0 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.3 56.2 55.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 3.5 2.3 1.6 -3.2 7.9 12.8 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.1 0.5 -0.2 45.9 47.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.6 3.9 2.2 -1.0 31.2 34.8 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.4 0.9 -0.7 37.7 40.2 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.0 1.6 -0.7 37.5 39.8 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.1 1.3 -0.2 47.1 47.8 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 52.6 52.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.1 3.5 1.1 -2.4 15.0 20.8 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.1 2.4 -1.1 30.6 33.1 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.1 1.5 -0.3 45.3 46.2 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 3.6 2.1 0.8 -3.8 4.5 8.8 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.6 2.0 0.1 -0.8 36.6 39.3 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 3.3 1.9 1.6 -3.1 7.1 13.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.0 51.0 51.4 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.6 -1.8 20.1 25.0 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 2.9 1.1 0.9 -3.9 3.7 8.5 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 3.1 2.1 1.8 -2.7 9.5 16.4 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.5 3.3 1.3 -1.8 21.7 26.9 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.2 2.8 1.9 -2.0 18.1 23.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.5 1.4 0.5 58.3 57.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 3.4 2.8 2.1 -2.2 16.7 21.6 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.7 2.0 1.8 -1.0 32.7 34.9 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 1.9 -0.4 -0.6 40.5 42.6 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 3.7 2.4 1.9 -3.0 8.2 13.8 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------