***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 9999.0 1.9 2.6 -4.0 7.2 12.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 3.1 1.4 2.3 -4.0 5.4 10.1 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 5.2 3.7 2.5 -3.8 6.5 12.0 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -1.0 -2.9 0.8 -3.6 7.3 13.1 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 2.6 1.2 0.8 -3.7 7.8 13.9 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 1.8 0.5 -0.8 -3.4 8.5 15.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 3.4 1.7 2.3 -4.1 5.5 10.1 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -4.2 -5.9 -0.8 -3.7 7.9 15.2 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 3.3 2.0 1.2 -3.7 7.7 14.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 3.6 2.2 -0.3 -3.7 7.6 15.0 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 3.4 2.1 0.5 -3.5 8.4 14.8 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 1.9 0.6 0.1 -3.5 8.6 15.1 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 2.9 1.6 -0.3 -3.5 9.0 15.5 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 4.1 2.6 1.0 -4.0 5.1 11.2 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 4.3 3.1 1.5 -3.5 7.5 13.0 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 3.9 2.5 0.2 -3.4 9.0 15.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 3.7 2.2 2.1 -4.1 5.1 9.5 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 1.7 0.2 -1.1 -3.9 6.5 14.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 3.2 1.5 2.4 -3.9 5.5 10.4 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 -1.2 -2.6 -2.8 -4.0 7.0 15.2 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 3.2 1.7 2.1 -3.8 7.5 13.4 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 3.2 1.8 2.1 -4.1 5.0 9.6 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 3.0 1.4 2.2 -3.8 5.5 10.6 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 3.4 2.0 0.8 -3.8 5.9 12.8 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 3.4 1.9 1.3 -3.9 7.0 12.4 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 2.7 1.6 -0.1 -3.4 8.9 15.3 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 3.3 1.5 2.0 -4.0 7.1 12.3 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.3 1.0 1.2 -3.4 8.0 13.8 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 -4.0 6.3 14.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 3.6 1.9 2.5 -4.0 5.8 10.7 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------