***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.2 8.4 0.2 52.8 51.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.8 8.3 0.2 52.8 51.8 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.7 8.1 0.1 52.6 51.3 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.2 6.2 0.0 50.4 49.9 2.8 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.2 6.2 0.1 51.2 50.3 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.3 4.3 0.1 52.8 51.5 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.9 8.2 0.1 52.3 51.7 6.6 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.5 0.1 4.6 0.1 52.2 51.4 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.9 6.7 0.1 51.9 51.0 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 7.0 5.3 0.1 51.2 50.9 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.5 5.7 0.0 50.9 50.0 5.5 6.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.1 5.3 0.1 51.5 50.6 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.3 4.7 0.1 51.5 50.5 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.7 6.7 0.1 51.7 51.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.5 6.7 -0.1 48.7 48.6 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.6 5.3 0.0 50.9 49.8 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.1 8.1 0.1 52.5 51.7 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.1 4.7 0.1 51.2 51.3 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.8 8.2 0.1 52.7 51.5 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.2 3.1 0.2 54.0 52.9 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.6 7.1 7.7 0.2 52.6 51.4 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.8 7.3 8.1 0.1 52.7 51.6 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.9 7.5 7.9 0.1 52.2 51.0 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.9 6.5 0.1 51.7 51.2 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.8 7.5 7.0 0.2 52.9 52.2 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.3 5.0 0.1 52.0 51.2 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 8.1 7.8 0.2 53.0 52.3 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.7 6.4 0.0 49.6 49.1 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.6 4.1 0.1 52.0 52.2 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.3 8.1 8.3 0.1 52.6 51.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------