***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 4.5 4.9 -2.0 11.2 18.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 4.7 3.6 4.5 -2.1 7.7 15.1 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 6.9 6.1 4.7 -1.9 10.3 17.7 7.4 8.2 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 1.1 0.4 3.0 -1.7 12.4 19.5 1.7 2.5 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 3.6 3.1 3.2 -1.6 14.3 21.6 4.2 4.9 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 2.8 2.8 1.6 -1.1 21.0 28.2 3.3 4.0 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 5.0 4.0 4.5 -2.1 8.0 15.5 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -3.0 1.7 -1.3 18.2 25.9 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 4.6 4.1 3.6 -1.5 15.0 22.7 5.1 5.7 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 4.6 4.3 2.2 -1.4 15.9 23.8 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 4.4 4.0 2.8 -1.4 15.3 22.7 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.7 2.4 -1.3 18.4 25.6 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.8 2.1 -1.2 20.0 26.8 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 5.2 4.5 3.3 -1.9 9.5 17.3 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 5.4 4.9 3.7 -1.6 12.9 20.5 5.8 6.4 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 5.0 4.7 2.5 -1.3 17.9 24.8 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 5.1 4.0 4.2 -2.3 6.4 13.7 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 2.7 2.4 1.5 -1.5 14.9 23.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 4.7 3.7 4.5 -2.1 8.2 15.5 5.3 6.1 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -1.3 19.7 27.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 4.5 3.8 4.4 -1.7 12.9 20.4 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 4.5 3.4 4.2 -2.3 6.2 13.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 4.5 3.7 4.4 -1.9 9.1 16.5 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 4.6 4.0 3.2 -1.7 11.6 19.6 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 4.7 4.0 3.7 -1.8 12.2 19.6 5.2 6.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.8 2.3 -1.1 22.4 28.7 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 5.0 4.2 4.3 -1.9 12.1 19.6 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.0 3.3 -1.5 14.4 21.5 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.1 0.9 -1.5 15.6 23.8 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 5.1 4.1 4.7 -2.1 8.6 16.0 5.7 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------