***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 12.7 9.5 -5.7 3.0 7.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 14.7 11.3 8.8 -6.3 1.6 5.1 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 14.8 11.7 9.3 -6.1 2.8 7.4 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 6.5 4.5 8.2 -4.6 7.8 13.5 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 14.9 12.6 8.8 -5.0 6.5 12.5 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 13.9 13.6 8.7 -2.6 22.6 27.0 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 14.6 11.4 8.9 -6.2 1.8 5.3 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 2.5 1.3 7.8 -4.1 11.7 17.3 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 14.6 12.0 9.4 -5.4 5.2 11.0 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 14.7 12.7 8.1 -5.0 7.9 13.8 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 14.6 12.7 9.0 -4.6 8.7 15.0 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 13.8 12.5 8.8 -3.8 12.6 18.3 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 14.8 13.8 9.4 -3.4 15.2 20.8 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 14.7 11.2 7.7 -6.9 2.0 6.5 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 14.4 12.8 10.1 -4.1 9.0 14.4 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 15.1 13.7 9.3 -3.9 12.1 18.2 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 14.1 10.8 8.2 -6.6 1.1 4.0 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 14.4 12.4 7.1 -5.4 7.0 13.0 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 14.5 11.0 8.8 -6.4 1.7 5.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 9.0 7.9 5.9 -4.0 12.3 17.2 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 14.8 11.9 9.6 -5.7 4.2 9.5 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 14.6 10.9 8.2 -6.8 1.0 3.7 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 14.7 11.2 8.8 -6.5 1.8 5.8 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 14.7 11.8 8.1 -6.2 3.7 9.2 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 14.7 12.0 8.7 -5.4 4.1 9.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 14.2 13.6 9.1 -2.6 20.3 24.8 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 14.8 11.8 9.1 -5.6 3.1 7.7 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 14.3 12.8 9.3 -4.1 10.6 16.3 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 9.0 7.2 6.5 -5.1 7.8 13.8 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 14.6 11.4 9.1 -6.1 2.0 5.9 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------