***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 9999.0 12.2 11.7 -4.9 6.7 13.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 13.3 11.2 11.6 -4.8 6.5 13.1 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 13.7 11.7 11.8 -5.0 7.0 13.9 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 6.2 3.8 10.2 -5.1 6.6 13.2 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 14.1 12.0 10.4 -5.2 6.9 13.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 13.2 11.0 8.4 -5.3 7.4 13.7 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 13.4 11.5 11.4 -4.9 6.3 12.9 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 2.0 -0.3 8.9 -5.3 7.0 13.6 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 13.8 11.7 10.8 -5.2 7.1 14.1 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 13.9 11.8 9.6 -5.3 7.1 14.0 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 14.1 11.9 10.0 -5.2 7.1 13.8 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 13.1 10.8 9.7 -5.2 7.0 13.4 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 14.1 11.8 9.1 -5.3 6.9 13.3 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 13.4 11.2 10.5 -5.3 7.0 14.3 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.4 12.6 10.6 -4.8 6.5 12.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 14.4 12.1 9.7 -5.3 7.0 13.4 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 12.9 10.9 11.3 -4.8 6.5 13.1 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 13.2 10.9 8.8 -5.5 6.9 14.1 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 13.2 11.1 11.7 -4.9 6.8 13.5 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 8.3 5.8 6.5 -5.5 6.5 13.1 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 13.9 11.9 11.4 -5.1 7.0 14.0 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 13.4 11.4 11.5 -4.8 6.9 13.6 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 13.4 11.4 11.7 -5.0 7.0 14.0 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 13.5 11.4 10.4 -5.3 7.1 14.3 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 13.9 12.0 10.3 -5.0 6.6 13.3 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 13.6 11.5 9.0 -5.1 7.3 13.2 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 13.8 11.9 10.9 -5.0 6.6 13.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 14.2 12.2 10.5 -5.0 6.7 13.1 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 8.0 5.7 7.7 -5.5 6.8 13.8 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 13.3 11.4 11.7 -4.9 6.5 13.2 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------