***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 16.8 16.7 -0.7 41.0 43.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 15.3 16.4 16.3 -0.8 39.3 41.9 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 15.4 16.6 16.7 -0.7 41.1 43.2 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 7.9 9.1 15.0 -1.0 37.9 41.6 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 15.3 16.7 15.3 -0.8 39.7 42.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 14.2 15.2 13.3 -0.9 39.3 42.3 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 15.2 16.2 16.3 -0.8 39.6 42.2 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.3 13.8 -0.8 40.5 43.0 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 14.9 16.2 15.7 -0.8 40.7 43.1 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 15.1 16.4 14.6 -0.8 40.8 43.2 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 15.1 16.4 14.9 -0.8 39.9 42.7 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 14.1 15.5 14.5 -0.8 40.1 42.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 15.1 16.3 14.0 -0.9 39.8 42.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 15.2 16.5 15.5 -0.7 41.8 43.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.5 16.4 15.1 -1.1 35.9 40.4 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 15.4 16.6 14.5 -0.9 39.4 42.3 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.7 16.0 -0.9 38.4 41.3 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 14.6 15.9 13.9 -0.7 41.6 43.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 15.1 16.2 16.5 -0.8 39.7 42.2 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 9.3 10.6 11.6 -0.8 40.9 43.2 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 15.1 16.4 16.4 -0.7 40.8 43.2 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 15.3 16.3 16.2 -0.8 38.6 41.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 15.4 16.6 16.5 -0.7 40.6 42.7 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 14.9 16.3 15.5 -0.7 41.8 43.6 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 15.3 16.5 15.3 -0.8 40.1 42.8 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 14.5 15.7 13.7 -0.9 39.7 42.2 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 15.1 16.3 16.0 -0.7 41.1 43.2 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 15.5 16.4 15.1 -1.0 37.1 41.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.3 10.7 12.9 -0.8 41.4 43.5 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.0 16.2 16.5 -0.7 40.0 42.5 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------