***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 19.9 18.5 0.6 58.2 54.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 17.9 20.6 18.3 0.6 58.3 54.9 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 17.8 20.6 18.7 0.7 58.9 55.2 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.3 13.1 17.0 0.6 58.1 54.8 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 18.0 20.9 17.2 0.7 59.4 55.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 16.5 19.3 15.3 0.7 59.1 55.8 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.5 20.1 18.2 0.6 57.9 54.8 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 8.7 15.8 0.9 61.1 56.7 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 17.6 20.4 17.7 0.8 59.7 55.9 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 17.5 20.5 16.5 0.8 60.5 56.4 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 17.6 20.7 16.8 0.8 60.0 56.3 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 16.8 19.9 16.6 0.8 60.6 56.5 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 17.8 20.7 16.1 0.8 59.9 56.3 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 17.8 21.0 17.5 0.9 61.3 56.5 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 17.7 20.0 17.2 0.5 56.3 53.7 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 18.2 21.1 16.5 0.8 59.6 56.0 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.3 19.8 18.0 0.6 58.6 55.0 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 17.1 20.2 16.0 0.9 61.5 56.8 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 17.6 20.3 18.5 0.6 58.9 55.3 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 12.1 15.3 13.7 1.0 62.1 56.9 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 17.8 20.6 18.3 0.7 59.0 55.4 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 18.0 20.8 18.2 0.7 59.7 55.5 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 17.9 20.8 18.5 0.7 60.1 55.9 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 17.5 20.5 17.4 0.9 61.0 56.3 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 17.9 20.4 17.2 0.6 58.7 55.3 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 17.1 19.9 15.8 0.8 60.1 56.4 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 17.7 20.3 17.8 0.7 58.7 55.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 17.8 20.3 17.1 0.6 57.3 54.4 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.0 15.3 15.0 1.0 62.2 57.2 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 17.6 20.3 18.5 0.6 58.1 54.9 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------