***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 14.2 14.1 -2.7 8.9 16.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 16.0 14.8 13.8 -2.8 7.1 14.7 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 16.1 14.9 14.1 -2.8 8.7 16.8 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 8.5 7.5 12.6 -2.5 11.1 19.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 16.4 15.4 12.9 -2.6 11.1 19.3 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 15.0 14.6 11.4 -2.0 18.1 25.3 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 15.8 14.6 13.7 -2.8 7.3 14.7 16.6 17.4 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.9 3.1 11.6 -2.3 14.0 22.1 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 15.9 14.9 13.4 -2.7 10.6 18.8 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 16.0 15.1 12.2 -2.6 12.1 20.3 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 16.1 15.2 12.7 -2.5 12.5 20.5 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 15.1 14.4 12.4 -2.3 14.5 22.4 15.9 17.0 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 16.0 15.5 12.1 -2.2 15.6 23.2 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 15.9 14.6 12.8 -3.0 7.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 16.2 15.4 13.2 -2.4 11.1 19.5 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 16.4 15.7 12.5 -2.3 14.1 21.9 17.2 18.3 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 15.3 14.0 13.4 -2.9 6.5 13.7 16.1 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 15.5 14.6 11.4 -2.7 11.6 20.1 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 15.7 14.5 13.9 -2.9 7.3 15.1 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 10.3 9.5 9.4 -2.3 14.3 22.5 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 16.1 15.0 13.9 -2.7 9.8 17.9 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 15.9 14.6 13.5 -3.0 6.3 13.9 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 16.0 14.8 13.9 -2.9 7.6 15.7 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 15.8 14.7 12.9 -2.8 9.4 17.9 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 16.1 15.2 12.9 -2.6 9.5 17.7 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 15.4 15.0 11.9 -1.9 17.8 24.8 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 16.0 15.0 13.5 -2.7 9.0 17.1 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 16.2 15.4 13.0 -2.4 12.3 20.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 10.3 9.3 10.5 -2.6 12.2 20.6 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 15.7 14.5 14.0 -2.8 7.7 15.4 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------