***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 19.9 27.5 241.8 91.4 85.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 11.9 19.2 21.7 207.9 87.9 79.4 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 13.3 24.9 26.3 231.6 90.8 83.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 15.0 26.5 33.1 260.8 93.1 89.2 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 13.3 24.0 31.9 236.4 91.6 87.6 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 11.8 19.9 33.0 239.9 92.1 89.1 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 10.2 16.1 20.7 199.0 86.3 78.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 19.5 30.5 33.1 213.3 88.9 85.8 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 10.6 18.9 29.9 221.2 90.4 85.3 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 12.1 18.9 31.7 208.7 88.6 84.9 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 10.9 18.9 31.1 235.7 91.1 87.4 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 12.3 21.3 31.6 233.2 90.8 87.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.8 20.4 34.1 246.1 92.3 89.1 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 12.0 16.8 26.8 189.7 86.2 79.8 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 11.1 23.5 33.3 295.5 95.0 91.7 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 10.8 18.0 32.0 241.3 91.9 88.3 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 9.7 13.8 18.7 187.0 84.4 74.7 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 9.4 13.3 31.8 194.8 86.8 83.3 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 10.7 17.6 23.0 214.1 89.2 80.2 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 12.2 17.1 37.3 200.4 87.4 84.8 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 11.0 21.7 28.7 234.3 91.4 85.2 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 10.4 14.8 19.8 186.4 84.4 74.4 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 9.4 15.0 24.1 210.8 88.6 80.3 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 11.6 17.8 28.4 201.9 87.7 82.1 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 13.0 24.3 32.1 249.4 92.9 88.1 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 12.3 22.4 34.6 247.2 92.4 89.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 11.0 20.0 29.1 236.4 91.4 86.0 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 10.8 20.9 32.9 273.7 93.8 90.4 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 16.1 22.8 32.8 192.8 86.7 83.3 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 9.5 16.5 23.5 219.4 89.5 81.7 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------