***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 11.9 15.9 126.7 71.6 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.8 13.7 112.7 66.9 55.9 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.4 18.6 15.7 128.8 72.3 60.3 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 28.0 27.9 17.4 122.0 70.2 61.1 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 23.9 25.1 17.5 130.6 72.8 63.5 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.3 17.5 21.0 116.3 68.3 60.2 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.4 13.7 109.4 65.9 55.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 29.2 32.1 18.6 136.5 74.5 65.9 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 19.2 21.4 17.7 136.8 74.6 64.7 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.1 25.5 19.0 136.0 74.4 65.3 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 22.0 23.4 16.5 133.1 73.6 64.2 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 19.8 23.2 16.3 138.7 75.0 65.7 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 21.3 23.5 18.8 129.0 72.4 63.3 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.0 23.9 18.7 125.7 71.3 59.9 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.2 16.0 118.3 69.3 60.1 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 20.4 21.3 17.5 127.0 71.9 63.2 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.0 12.4 100.1 62.7 52.9 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 19.0 21.2 21.3 136.4 74.5 65.5 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.4 19.5 14.2 118.0 68.7 57.0 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 18.0 20.3 24.2 134.0 73.9 65.0 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 17.7 19.7 16.3 134.0 73.8 62.3 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.7 12.4 100.1 62.4 53.0 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.9 19.5 15.3 124.4 70.8 58.4 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.9 20.6 18.8 132.4 73.4 63.1 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.2 18.6 124.6 70.9 60.2 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 19.6 21.8 17.6 132.6 73.4 63.9 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.3 19.0 17.6 121.8 70.0 59.0 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 21.1 20.8 16.7 119.8 69.8 61.1 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 27.1 30.7 22.5 136.5 74.6 65.5 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.0 14.6 119.6 69.3 57.9 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------