***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 9.5 10.5 72.3 49.1 37.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.7 8.4 10.4 75.8 52.1 39.6 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 7.4 13.6 11.5 82.3 54.0 41.2 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 10.2 16.2 13.1 80.5 52.7 41.7 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.0 14.2 13.3 84.4 54.6 42.6 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.7 12.9 16.7 86.3 53.3 44.5 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.8 10.5 76.2 52.4 39.1 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.1 26.6 14.8 92.2 57.8 43.8 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.3 14.0 13.2 86.7 55.2 42.4 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 8.7 16.6 14.7 88.8 56.1 43.1 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.8 14.1 12.8 87.6 56.6 43.6 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.2 15.5 12.9 92.6 58.6 44.1 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.6 15.2 13.7 82.6 52.4 42.2 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.9 14.6 14.9 83.4 53.3 40.4 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 11.0 12.2 78.8 53.6 42.5 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.6 14.1 13.2 84.2 54.0 42.9 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.8 10.1 74.9 52.8 39.4 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 9.4 16.6 16.3 87.0 54.3 41.8 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.6 8.5 10.7 76.4 52.1 39.9 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 13.8 18.0 84.5 52.5 40.6 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.0 12.3 11.6 81.7 53.0 40.6 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.3 7.8 9.7 69.1 50.1 38.0 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.2 9.9 11.7 79.5 53.2 40.7 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 8.3 16.5 14.7 87.3 55.0 41.9 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.1 10.7 12.4 73.3 48.4 38.3 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.6 10.5 13.4 84.2 53.2 42.6 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.7 9.7 11.4 70.0 47.2 36.6 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.1 11.5 12.9 82.1 54.0 42.8 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.7 20.6 17.1 86.4 53.7 41.3 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.9 7.6 10.6 76.3 52.0 39.6 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------