***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 51.9 64.4 126.5 73.8 66.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 40.7 49.5 55.5 115.8 67.6 60.8 26.4 36.4 48.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 65.1 72.0 64.3 130.1 76.3 68.5 35.4 47.5 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 77.6 83.1 75.5 131.0 77.2 69.8 49.8 61.0 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 71.3 82.1 75.1 133.3 78.9 71.3 33.6 47.7 63.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 58.8 61.7 85.9 121.9 72.9 67.3 36.7 46.0 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 39.9 47.5 54.7 112.9 65.8 59.4 24.6 35.3 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 96.7 104.4 80.0 131.2 78.3 71.7 67.2 79.5 92.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 62.2 71.1 73.7 134.0 79.4 71.2 33.0 44.2 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 72.3 79.4 79.5 130.3 77.6 70.6 41.6 53.6 66.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 64.6 73.6 72.3 135.2 79.4 72.5 35.9 47.2 59.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 61.7 70.6 71.6 136.0 80.2 73.2 38.5 48.1 58.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 65.5 72.2 78.5 128.1 76.5 70.2 39.9 50.8 62.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 70.7 73.2 73.8 118.9 70.3 63.2 42.3 54.9 68.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 59.5 66.6 71.9 134.8 77.7 70.9 29.5 40.8 53.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 64.0 71.4 74.5 129.7 76.9 70.5 35.9 47.2 59.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 42.6 45.5 50.3 106.1 61.5 55.3 27.9 37.9 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 65.9 69.7 85.0 125.1 74.8 68.1 40.7 51.1 62.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 44.0 57.7 57.9 119.6 70.1 62.8 26.7 38.7 52.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 62.6 66.3 96.7 123.8 74.9 68.5 37.5 47.5 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 59.6 67.3 68.2 134.1 78.8 70.4 30.4 41.3 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 42.5 44.8 51.1 104.2 60.0 54.4 26.6 37.5 49.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 42.8 56.4 62.2 122.6 72.1 64.7 27.8 38.3 50.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 67.3 71.9 75.5 125.8 74.6 67.4 40.6 51.7 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 66.4 70.6 75.4 126.2 74.8 67.6 36.2 48.1 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 58.3 64.4 76.5 131.6 78.2 71.4 35.4 44.6 54.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 63.1 65.6 69.8 121.5 71.5 65.0 31.8 44.7 59.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 58.8 64.6 73.7 132.5 77.3 70.4 34.8 44.3 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 87.6 92.1 88.3 123.5 73.9 67.4 55.3 68.6 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 40.3 50.5 58.6 120.8 70.6 63.6 27.3 36.6 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------