***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.0 7.8 0.4 56.4 55.8 5.5 6.6 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.4 7.6 0.6 59.0 57.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.3 7.8 0.4 56.6 55.7 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.9 2.5 4.7 0.1 50.9 52.0 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.9 4.8 -0.1 47.8 49.6 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.8 2.4 -0.4 43.2 47.1 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 7.7 0.7 60.6 59.0 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -2.0 2.5 -0.4 43.9 47.6 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.6 5.0 -0.1 47.8 49.6 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.5 3.4 -0.3 45.3 48.1 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.4 4.0 -0.2 46.4 48.8 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.9 3.2 -0.3 45.0 48.1 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.6 2.6 -0.6 40.9 45.1 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.0 5.0 -0.1 48.2 49.6 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.7 5.9 0.2 53.6 53.9 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 5.7 3.4 -0.3 44.9 47.9 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.3 6.8 7.5 0.6 59.6 58.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.6 2.7 -0.3 45.3 48.0 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.4 7.6 0.5 58.4 57.2 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.6 41.5 46.2 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 6.6 0.1 50.8 51.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.6 5.9 7.2 0.5 58.4 57.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.0 7.3 0.5 57.7 56.6 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.5 4.8 -0.1 49.0 50.3 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 6.1 0.1 51.6 52.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.5 2.4 -0.4 43.1 47.6 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.6 7.0 0.2 53.6 54.0 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.9 4.9 0.0 50.6 51.8 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.9 2.2 2.0 -0.4 44.3 47.7 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 7.8 0.6 59.3 57.9 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------