***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.2 8.6 0.1 52.0 51.9 7.1 8.1 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.9 8.5 0.3 54.1 53.2 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 8.6 0.2 53.0 52.5 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.9 5.5 -0.2 46.1 48.2 2.8 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.7 5.5 -0.4 43.1 45.8 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.8 3.4 -0.4 42.2 45.8 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 0.4 56.0 54.7 6.6 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.3 -0.6 3.2 -0.5 40.4 44.2 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 5.8 -0.3 44.0 46.4 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.5 4.1 -0.5 41.6 44.9 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.0 4.7 -0.4 41.5 44.6 5.5 6.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.0 -0.4 41.9 44.9 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.8 3.5 -0.6 39.8 43.1 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.2 5.8 -0.4 43.7 46.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 6.8 0.1 51.0 51.3 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.0 4.2 -0.5 41.1 44.4 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 8.3 0.2 53.4 52.9 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.4 -0.4 42.5 45.8 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.9 8.4 0.2 53.7 53.0 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 0.9 1.5 1.1 -0.7 39.0 43.5 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 7.4 -0.2 47.0 48.4 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 8.0 0.1 52.3 52.2 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.0 7.5 8.1 0.2 53.0 52.8 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.6 5.6 -0.2 45.5 47.6 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.1 6.9 -0.2 46.8 48.2 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.9 3.3 -0.4 43.0 45.4 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.9 7.9 0.0 50.5 50.8 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.5 5.8 -0.1 47.3 49.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.0 2.8 -0.4 42.6 46.0 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.3 8.6 0.3 54.8 53.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------