***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.9 7.3 0.4 59.8 58.6 5.8 6.5 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.6 7.1 0.6 63.5 61.2 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.5 7.3 0.4 59.2 58.1 7.4 8.2 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.3 4.0 -0.2 46.4 48.1 1.7 2.5 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.9 4.6 -0.1 48.1 49.6 4.2 4.9 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.7 2.0 -0.3 42.4 45.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 7.1 6.9 7.3 0.7 66.7 63.7 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -1.5 2.2 -0.2 45.9 48.2 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.8 4.8 0.0 51.0 51.9 5.1 5.7 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.7 3.1 -0.1 47.7 49.6 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.4 4.0 -0.1 48.6 50.2 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.0 3.1 -0.1 47.1 49.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.6 2.5 -0.5 38.6 42.0 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 4.6 -0.1 47.2 48.9 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.6 5.5 0.3 56.7 56.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.9 3.3 -0.2 44.0 46.4 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.9 7.0 0.6 64.1 61.5 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.5 2.4 -0.2 44.9 47.3 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.6 7.1 0.6 63.6 61.2 5.3 6.1 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.2 44.2 47.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.8 6.2 0.1 51.5 52.2 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.1 6.9 0.6 64.0 61.5 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.2 6.9 0.6 63.7 61.3 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 4.5 0.0 49.1 50.5 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.1 5.9 0.1 53.2 53.6 5.2 6.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.7 2.2 -0.3 42.7 45.4 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.9 6.7 0.3 57.6 57.0 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 4.4 -0.1 48.5 50.0 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.7 1.7 -0.2 45.7 48.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.0 7.3 0.6 64.3 61.8 5.7 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------