***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.1 15.8 0.7 58.5 57.2 15.9 17.4 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 18.8 18.9 16.8 1.7 70.3 66.9 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.7 16.4 1.1 62.7 60.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.1 11.3 -0.6 43.0 43.9 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 18.4 17.8 13.5 -0.1 48.6 49.1 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.3 11.5 0.0 49.6 50.0 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.6 16.6 1.5 68.9 65.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 5.4 4.9 11.7 -0.1 49.1 49.7 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 18.0 17.8 14.8 0.3 53.1 53.1 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 18.0 17.8 13.1 0.2 52.6 52.8 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 18.0 17.9 14.3 0.3 54.0 53.9 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.9 12.9 0.3 53.8 53.7 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.2 14.2 0.7 59.2 58.5 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.3 15.4 0.8 59.1 58.3 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.3 14.3 0.1 51.0 50.7 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 18.4 18.5 13.8 0.5 56.3 55.8 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.0 16.6 1.8 72.0 68.2 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.3 12.4 0.1 51.6 51.9 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 18.7 18.9 17.0 1.8 70.9 67.5 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.3 10.0 -0.2 47.4 48.3 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.2 17.9 15.5 0.2 52.5 52.4 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 18.6 18.8 16.8 1.8 71.1 67.7 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 19.0 19.3 17.1 1.8 71.0 67.9 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 18.0 18.1 15.0 0.6 57.1 56.4 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 17.9 17.3 13.9 -0.2 47.7 48.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.9 12.1 0.4 54.8 54.6 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 18.0 17.9 15.0 0.3 53.9 53.4 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.2 12.8 -0.1 48.4 48.7 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.8 11.8 0.0 50.4 51.0 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 18.6 18.7 16.6 1.4 67.6 64.7 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------