***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.5 17.1 17.1 1.3 63.3 61.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.1 17.8 2.1 72.1 68.2 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.4 17.2 1.2 61.7 60.3 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.7 13.2 0.1 50.6 50.7 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.1 14.3 -0.1 49.4 50.2 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.0 15.9 11.8 -0.6 44.7 46.0 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.9 17.7 2.1 72.1 68.3 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.4 12.1 -0.6 44.3 45.8 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.7 15.2 0.1 50.7 51.4 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.5 13.3 -0.3 47.4 48.5 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.6 16.9 14.4 -0.2 48.4 49.2 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.7 15.9 13.3 -0.3 47.0 48.0 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.1 13.6 -0.2 48.4 49.2 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.4 15.2 0.2 52.0 52.9 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.5 15.4 0.5 55.6 54.6 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.4 13.8 -0.1 48.8 49.4 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.5 17.7 2.3 74.5 69.7 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.6 15.7 12.7 -0.4 46.4 47.8 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.8 17.8 1.9 69.8 66.5 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.6 10.0 -0.8 43.0 44.9 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.9 16.1 0.3 53.1 53.4 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.8 17.4 1.9 70.0 66.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 17.7 17.6 17.5 1.5 65.7 63.4 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.3 15.0 0.1 51.2 51.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.1 15.2 0.5 55.5 55.2 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.7 12.7 0.1 51.0 51.4 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.4 16.3 1.0 60.7 59.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.3 14.0 0.1 50.9 50.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 10.5 11.8 -0.6 45.1 46.8 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 17.6 17.7 17.7 1.9 69.6 66.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------