***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 19.2 18.4 17.9 1.0 61.4 59.1 16.2 17.6 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 18.9 18.8 18.3 1.7 69.0 63.7 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.9 18.2 18.0 0.9 59.9 57.9 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.1 14.8 0.0 50.0 50.8 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.2 15.2 -0.3 46.5 48.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.1 12.5 -1.1 38.0 42.6 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 18.6 18.5 18.3 1.6 68.7 63.6 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.3 13.2 -0.8 41.4 45.3 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 15.6 -0.3 47.2 49.1 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.6 14.2 -0.6 43.9 47.0 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.8 14.9 -0.4 45.4 48.1 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.8 14.4 -0.5 44.3 47.5 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.6 13.5 -0.7 42.7 46.5 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 15.4 -0.3 46.7 48.9 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.8 15.9 0.4 55.0 53.7 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.1 14.4 -0.5 45.0 48.0 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.2 18.3 1.7 69.8 64.2 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.0 13.7 -0.7 42.8 46.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 18.7 18.4 18.3 1.4 66.4 62.1 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.4 10.7 -1.2 38.5 43.1 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.3 16.7 0.1 50.9 51.7 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 18.8 18.4 17.9 1.3 65.1 61.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 18.9 18.2 17.9 1.0 60.8 58.4 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.7 15.4 -0.3 47.4 49.4 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.6 15.8 0.3 53.9 53.8 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.2 13.6 -0.3 46.3 49.0 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 18.6 17.7 16.9 0.7 58.5 57.1 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 15.1 0.0 50.1 50.8 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.6 12.6 -0.9 41.0 44.9 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 18.8 18.5 18.3 1.5 67.3 62.7 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------