***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.9 19.2 1.1 62.6 59.2 18.4 19.8 21.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 20.4 21.6 19.6 1.7 68.8 63.9 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.9 19.4 1.1 61.9 58.6 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.9 16.5 0.5 56.3 54.7 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 20.5 20.2 16.8 0.1 51.6 51.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.2 14.4 -0.2 48.0 48.4 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.0 21.1 19.6 1.6 68.5 63.7 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 14.7 -0.4 46.0 46.9 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 20.0 19.7 17.1 0.2 51.8 51.3 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.1 19.4 15.7 -0.1 48.7 49.0 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 20.3 19.8 16.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.8 15.9 -0.1 48.7 49.0 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 20.3 19.6 15.1 -0.2 47.9 48.4 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.0 17.0 0.1 51.3 50.8 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.6 17.7 1.1 63.1 59.4 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 20.8 20.3 16.0 0.1 50.7 50.6 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 19.6 20.7 19.5 1.6 68.5 63.6 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.7 18.8 15.2 -0.3 47.2 47.8 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 20.0 21.1 19.7 1.5 67.1 62.6 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.8 13.3 12.0 -0.9 41.4 43.4 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 20.2 20.2 18.2 0.4 54.4 53.2 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.3 19.1 1.3 64.7 60.5 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.1 19.4 1.2 63.2 59.7 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 20.0 19.7 17.0 0.2 51.9 51.3 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 20.1 20.3 17.2 0.6 57.1 55.2 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.1 15.1 0.1 51.3 50.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.4 18.3 0.9 60.0 57.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.4 16.8 0.7 57.8 55.7 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.6 14.0 -0.5 44.7 46.0 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.1 21.2 19.6 1.6 67.6 63.0 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------