***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 18.8 18.6 17.5 1.0 67.4 63.8 16.8 17.7 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.3 18.2 1.8 78.8 72.1 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.9 18.8 17.8 1.0 67.2 63.7 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 14.0 0.0 50.1 51.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.1 15.0 -0.1 48.5 50.3 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.3 12.6 -0.5 42.2 45.7 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 18.6 18.9 18.0 1.7 78.1 71.7 16.6 17.4 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 12.9 -0.5 42.3 46.0 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.7 15.7 0.1 51.0 52.3 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.5 14.1 -0.2 46.9 49.4 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.8 15.0 -0.1 49.1 51.1 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.8 14.1 -0.2 47.3 49.9 15.9 17.0 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.8 14.1 -0.1 48.7 51.2 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.9 15.8 0.2 53.4 54.2 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.3 15.8 0.5 59.6 58.1 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.3 14.5 0.0 50.0 52.0 17.2 18.3 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 18.1 18.6 18.0 1.9 80.0 73.2 16.1 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.0 13.5 -0.3 45.1 48.1 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.0 18.2 1.7 77.0 70.8 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 11.3 10.7 -0.8 38.3 43.0 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.1 16.6 0.2 54.2 54.5 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 18.8 19.0 17.8 1.6 75.7 70.0 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 19.0 19.0 18.0 1.4 72.6 67.7 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.7 15.6 0.2 52.7 53.7 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.1 15.5 0.3 55.8 55.3 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.2 13.4 0.1 51.0 52.6 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 18.8 18.4 16.6 0.7 62.8 60.4 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.1 14.7 0.2 52.8 53.4 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.6 12.5 -0.5 42.4 46.1 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 18.7 19.0 18.0 1.6 76.3 70.2 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------