***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.8 85.2 57.9 38.9 2.4 4.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.8 6.8 75.2 53.9 37.7 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.8 8.1 80.3 55.6 40.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.2 11.5 88.3 58.7 42.6 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.0 10.1 83.7 56.1 39.3 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.9 10.5 74.8 51.1 38.5 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.1 7.0 80.0 55.3 39.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.1 13.0 85.5 55.3 43.4 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.5 79.1 54.1 39.6 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.9 11.7 78.1 52.4 40.8 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.7 10.7 83.9 56.0 40.6 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.6 11.8 89.3 58.2 43.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.3 11.4 80.3 54.5 40.1 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.8 10.2 77.7 54.5 43.3 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 6.3 9.8 87.3 59.6 43.6 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.5 11.2 87.0 57.7 42.8 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.1 6.3 70.3 51.8 37.6 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.1 13.0 85.5 55.9 44.7 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.5 6.9 74.3 53.6 38.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.8 15.8 97.4 60.2 48.0 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.0 80.7 54.9 39.5 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.0 6.1 62.6 48.7 36.4 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.4 7.7 78.9 55.6 42.7 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.6 10.7 84.0 56.7 44.3 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.0 85.2 57.2 37.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.9 12.1 89.9 59.3 43.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.1 9.0 82.8 56.5 37.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.3 5.8 10.6 84.1 57.3 41.8 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.9 13.9 89.6 57.6 46.2 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.4 80.1 55.6 38.7 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------