***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.1 12.1 9.9 84.7 56.8 43.3 5.6 9.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.6 10.4 9.0 82.0 55.2 42.5 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.9 10.8 90.9 59.0 45.9 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.2 24.8 13.9 102.1 64.0 52.1 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.3 19.4 13.2 97.2 61.8 51.3 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.3 16.5 16.6 111.3 66.0 55.6 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.9 8.5 74.9 52.6 40.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 23.2 28.4 17.1 116.6 68.3 56.7 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.5 15.7 13.7 100.1 63.1 51.5 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.9 21.1 16.5 111.0 66.4 55.2 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.3 17.2 13.9 100.0 62.0 51.6 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 17.8 14.6 111.0 66.3 54.1 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.2 19.2 15.4 107.2 64.6 53.8 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.0 18.2 15.1 97.0 61.2 48.8 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.5 13.3 106.7 65.7 50.4 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.1 16.4 13.8 99.3 61.4 50.8 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.0 8.2 7.9 72.9 50.5 38.9 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.7 17.8 17.7 111.9 66.3 55.5 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.1 13.7 9.7 87.1 57.6 44.5 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 17.6 20.4 116.9 67.7 57.9 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.2 14.5 12.2 95.2 61.3 48.6 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.3 8.8 78.5 53.7 42.7 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.8 10.6 89.8 58.5 44.5 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.5 14.4 98.3 61.4 49.3 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.6 11.7 85.1 56.4 45.1 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.0 18.4 15.3 110.6 66.3 56.6 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.3 11.6 10.2 78.8 53.6 42.5 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.6 18.6 14.1 107.1 65.5 52.4 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.0 25.5 18.4 111.9 66.2 55.8 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 10.2 9.3 83.3 56.2 43.2 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------