***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.9 13.1 92.4 60.3 45.8 6.3 10.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.9 11.2 88.4 59.0 44.9 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.9 15.6 12.8 91.7 60.0 47.7 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.9 19.2 15.5 97.6 62.0 50.8 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.4 14.6 94.8 61.0 50.4 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.6 17.6 19.5 114.5 67.8 58.0 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 10.5 84.5 56.9 41.8 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 26.4 29.9 17.2 104.9 64.4 53.4 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.9 15.6 14.8 91.8 59.6 49.2 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 19.1 17.4 99.6 62.4 52.4 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.8 14.8 100.1 62.9 51.5 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.3 17.0 15.1 102.3 63.7 51.9 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.1 19.0 17.0 102.2 63.5 54.0 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.9 17.5 18.1 95.5 61.1 50.8 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.9 15.6 103.5 64.9 51.7 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.0 17.9 16.0 102.8 63.8 52.9 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.1 10.2 86.5 57.6 43.0 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.1 19.8 18.9 101.5 63.0 53.8 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.2 11.7 89.0 59.3 46.3 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 17.3 19.9 105.0 64.1 55.2 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.4 14.4 13.5 91.7 59.5 49.0 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.2 10.9 82.9 56.1 45.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.9 11.6 12.7 89.3 59.3 47.5 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.0 19.1 16.7 95.7 61.3 51.4 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.3 14.8 92.8 60.1 48.3 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.9 14.5 16.5 106.2 65.1 55.2 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.4 14.1 92.3 60.2 45.7 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.8 15.4 16.7 106.8 65.6 53.2 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 24.4 19.2 102.3 63.0 53.9 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.2 11.7 88.7 59.0 44.6 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------