***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.4 12.5 14.2 90.1 58.5 46.7 6.4 10.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.1 9.9 69.7 49.3 41.1 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.1 12.8 82.0 54.6 43.7 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.8 15.8 92.5 59.7 49.2 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.0 15.2 90.5 58.5 47.5 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.9 9.6 16.6 89.3 56.5 47.8 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.3 73.3 51.3 42.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.3 16.5 94.8 58.7 47.7 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 15.5 89.4 57.6 45.6 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.4 17.0 91.1 57.0 45.5 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.0 14.2 91.0 58.1 47.1 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.2 14.0 90.7 57.5 47.4 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.6 15.4 86.6 55.3 46.4 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.4 12.2 16.0 83.2 53.9 44.0 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.2 13.4 82.9 56.7 45.3 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.9 14.5 87.9 56.7 47.2 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.3 9.2 68.4 48.6 40.1 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.9 17.9 91.8 56.9 46.0 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.4 10.1 68.7 48.7 40.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.5 12.0 20.4 102.9 61.6 50.4 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.4 14.3 88.3 57.6 46.0 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.8 9.7 68.2 48.9 40.1 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.8 11.0 72.2 50.3 40.8 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.6 10.8 15.4 86.0 55.0 44.1 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.2 15.8 91.4 59.4 48.4 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.1 14.7 87.9 56.4 47.4 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.7 15.1 91.8 59.3 47.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.9 15.0 88.8 58.1 47.6 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.3 15.3 18.7 96.7 58.9 47.8 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.3 11.5 77.4 53.2 43.6 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------