***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 31.4 43.6 46.0 88.5 48.0 41.0 33.5 44.9 57.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 23.6 30.6 36.9 78.6 40.5 37.0 26.4 36.4 48.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 33.2 45.0 44.5 86.3 46.8 40.4 35.4 47.5 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 48.5 62.8 56.6 95.1 53.0 45.5 49.8 61.0 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 31.9 47.7 53.1 91.8 50.2 42.8 33.6 47.7 63.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 35.6 48.1 63.2 97.9 53.4 47.2 36.7 46.0 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 21.6 28.7 36.3 77.9 39.7 36.2 24.6 35.3 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 65.4 83.8 63.8 99.9 55.8 46.2 67.2 79.5 92.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 29.8 43.6 53.5 90.5 49.2 41.5 33.0 44.2 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 38.6 54.7 62.6 94.6 51.6 43.2 41.6 53.6 66.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 33.5 48.0 53.5 93.6 51.1 42.9 35.9 47.2 59.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 36.8 50.6 55.4 97.9 54.4 44.9 38.5 48.1 58.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 37.5 50.8 59.2 94.0 50.1 43.2 39.9 50.8 62.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 39.9 52.7 59.4 88.8 47.2 41.0 42.3 54.9 68.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 28.9 43.6 52.0 94.8 53.8 45.8 29.5 40.8 53.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 34.2 48.0 55.6 94.3 51.2 43.8 35.9 47.2 59.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 25.1 30.5 33.6 74.6 37.5 35.2 27.9 37.9 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 39.6 53.6 67.6 97.5 53.8 45.3 40.7 51.1 62.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 23.7 32.4 38.4 79.6 41.3 37.4 26.7 38.7 52.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 52.8 54.1 76.4 104.8 60.0 49.9 37.5 47.5 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 28.8 40.6 49.0 89.3 49.1 42.0 30.4 41.3 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 23.6 28.8 35.4 73.5 36.8 35.3 26.6 37.5 49.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 25.7 34.1 42.0 82.4 43.4 38.1 27.8 38.3 50.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 39.5 51.4 57.2 91.2 49.6 42.2 40.6 51.7 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 34.8 46.9 52.4 89.1 48.3 42.1 36.2 48.1 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 34.5 47.2 58.7 98.4 54.5 46.4 35.4 44.6 54.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 30.2 41.8 48.3 87.1 46.6 40.7 31.8 44.7 59.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 34.2 47.1 56.3 96.7 54.4 46.3 34.8 44.3 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 54.5 73.5 70.1 100.0 55.8 46.6 55.3 68.6 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 24.6 32.8 39.9 82.3 43.3 38.3 27.3 36.6 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------