***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 7.3 7.4 7.8 0.9 69.2 66.0 6.0 6.7 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 6.4 6.9 7.3 0.7 65.3 62.9 5.4 6.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.5 9.0 7.7 0.8 67.9 65.1 7.6 8.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.6 5.1 0.8 69.3 66.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 5.9 6.0 5.5 0.8 69.1 66.0 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 4.8 4.9 3.2 0.8 68.5 65.6 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.5 7.1 7.4 0.7 67.0 64.4 5.7 6.4 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 -0.5 -0.4 3.1 0.7 67.5 64.7 -2.0 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 6.5 6.4 5.4 0.6 64.8 62.2 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.5 3.9 0.7 65.7 63.2 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 6.3 6.3 4.7 0.7 67.0 64.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 4.9 5.0 4.0 0.8 68.5 65.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.8 3.7 0.6 65.5 63.1 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.9 5.3 0.5 63.2 61.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 7.0 7.2 6.1 0.7 69.5 66.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 7.0 7.0 4.3 0.7 66.7 64.1 5.6 6.3 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.7 7.1 7.2 0.7 66.3 63.9 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 4.4 4.4 3.3 0.7 66.8 64.4 3.3 3.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 6.4 6.8 7.2 0.6 64.8 62.5 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 1.8 1.8 1.5 0.8 67.0 64.7 0.5 1.2 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 6.6 6.7 6.9 0.7 67.3 64.3 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.9 6.3 7.0 0.6 64.6 62.4 5.1 5.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.4 6.9 0.6 64.1 62.0 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.3 5.2 0.6 65.2 62.9 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 6.8 7.0 6.7 0.9 69.9 66.3 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.8 3.4 0.8 70.3 67.2 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 7.5 7.7 7.4 1.0 70.5 67.2 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.7 67.5 64.8 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 3.8 3.7 2.6 0.7 65.8 63.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.7 7.2 7.5 0.7 66.3 63.7 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------