***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 20.0 21.8 18.8 3.8 88.8 85.5 15.9 17.5 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 19.8 20.8 18.1 3.1 84.4 81.5 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 20.4 21.9 19.1 3.9 87.8 84.6 16.4 17.9 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 13.2 15.2 16.0 4.2 89.4 86.6 8.4 10.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 21.1 22.9 17.6 4.2 88.8 85.7 16.6 18.3 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 19.4 21.9 16.2 4.7 90.5 87.2 14.9 16.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 19.5 20.5 18.0 3.1 84.7 81.7 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 7.6 9.0 15.8 4.1 87.7 84.8 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 20.5 22.2 18.5 4.1 88.7 85.6 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 20.5 22.3 17.1 4.3 88.5 85.4 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 20.7 22.6 18.1 4.3 89.0 85.7 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 19.5 21.3 16.4 3.9 88.0 85.0 15.2 16.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 20.4 22.3 17.4 4.0 88.5 85.3 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 20.3 21.7 18.3 3.9 86.4 83.7 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 20.1 21.7 18.0 3.8 88.5 86.0 16.2 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 21.0 22.9 17.3 4.1 88.9 85.6 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 18.7 19.3 17.5 2.9 82.5 79.8 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 19.8 21.4 16.2 4.1 86.7 83.7 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 19.8 20.9 18.4 3.3 85.2 82.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 13.9 15.2 13.6 3.6 84.5 81.5 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 20.6 22.3 19.2 4.1 88.6 85.5 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 19.6 20.3 17.7 2.9 82.3 79.8 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 20.2 21.4 18.8 3.6 86.7 83.9 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 20.3 21.8 18.4 4.1 87.3 84.4 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 20.2 22.0 18.0 4.1 89.7 86.5 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 19.4 21.4 15.4 3.9 89.3 86.2 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 20.2 21.9 18.3 3.8 88.9 85.5 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 20.6 22.6 17.0 4.2 89.4 86.7 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 14.3 15.6 15.2 3.7 84.7 81.8 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 19.8 21.0 18.4 3.3 85.7 82.7 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------