***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.8 16.7 1.0 60.6 59.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 17.5 16.9 16.5 1.0 60.8 60.0 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.9 16.7 0.8 58.3 57.8 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.9 9.6 13.4 0.2 52.5 52.4 7.9 9.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.2 14.7 0.4 54.3 54.1 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.6 13.1 0.6 55.7 55.3 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.0 16.7 1.2 63.3 62.1 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.4 13.3 0.8 57.6 57.0 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.7 15.4 0.5 54.7 54.6 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.9 14.1 0.6 55.7 55.5 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.1 14.8 0.4 53.7 53.6 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.6 14.1 0.7 56.9 56.4 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.9 14.6 0.9 59.2 58.3 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 15.5 0.8 57.7 57.4 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.0 15.2 0.3 53.5 53.3 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.7 14.5 0.5 55.2 54.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.9 16.4 16.4 1.2 63.1 61.8 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.5 13.7 0.8 57.8 57.3 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.4 16.7 16.6 0.9 60.1 59.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.2 11.8 1.4 62.8 61.6 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.9 16.3 0.6 56.3 55.9 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.0 16.4 1.1 61.9 60.8 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 17.6 16.9 16.7 1.0 60.3 59.5 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.5 15.4 0.7 57.0 56.7 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.1 15.4 0.9 59.2 58.3 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.5 13.8 1.3 63.4 61.8 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 17.8 17.3 16.3 1.2 62.7 61.4 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.0 14.0 0.1 50.8 51.0 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.6 13.1 1.1 60.1 59.2 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 17.4 16.8 16.6 1.0 60.7 59.9 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------