***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 18.4 19.8 17.8 -0.4 45.5 46.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.1 19.5 17.4 -0.5 43.3 44.6 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 18.0 19.5 18.0 -0.4 44.8 45.8 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.2 12.2 15.7 -0.3 46.1 46.7 10.8 12.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 18.0 19.7 16.2 -0.5 43.4 44.9 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 16.2 18.1 14.4 -0.3 45.9 46.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.1 17.4 -0.5 43.5 44.6 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.3 14.6 -0.5 44.3 45.2 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 17.6 19.2 16.5 -0.5 43.5 44.9 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 17.7 19.2 15.3 -0.5 43.8 45.0 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 17.7 19.4 15.9 -0.5 43.3 44.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 16.8 18.5 15.5 -0.5 44.2 45.1 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 17.6 19.3 14.8 -0.5 43.6 44.5 18.3 19.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 17.9 19.5 16.3 -0.6 43.4 44.8 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 17.7 19.6 16.6 -0.1 49.3 48.8 18.2 19.7 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 18.1 19.8 15.5 -0.5 43.7 44.9 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.8 17.2 -0.5 43.1 44.4 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 17.2 18.7 14.9 -0.6 43.6 45.0 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 17.8 19.2 17.6 -0.5 44.0 45.1 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.7 12.2 -0.6 43.4 44.5 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 17.9 19.5 17.4 -0.4 44.6 45.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 18.0 19.4 17.2 -0.6 43.0 44.4 18.5 20.1 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 18.0 19.7 17.8 -0.4 45.0 45.9 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 17.5 19.1 16.3 -0.5 43.7 45.1 18.1 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 17.9 19.6 16.3 -0.3 46.4 47.0 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 16.9 18.7 14.7 -0.3 46.6 46.3 17.5 19.1 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 17.9 19.4 17.0 -0.3 45.8 46.5 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 17.6 19.5 16.0 -0.3 46.4 47.0 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.7 13.9 -0.6 43.2 44.7 12.7 14.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 17.8 19.2 17.5 -0.5 43.8 44.9 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------