***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 18.7 18.8 17.4 1.0 67.6 64.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.5 17.0 0.8 63.9 61.3 17.0 17.8 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 18.9 18.8 17.6 1.0 66.5 63.5 17.0 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.9 11.7 14.9 1.0 66.4 63.6 9.6 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 18.6 19.2 15.9 0.9 65.2 62.5 17.3 18.3 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 17.1 18.0 14.1 1.1 67.2 64.3 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.3 17.0 0.8 64.7 62.0 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 6.0 6.7 14.2 1.0 66.0 63.0 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.6 16.4 0.9 65.1 62.4 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 18.1 18.7 15.1 1.0 65.8 62.9 16.9 17.9 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 18.3 18.9 15.9 0.9 64.9 62.2 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 17.4 18.0 15.1 0.9 65.5 62.5 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 18.3 19.0 15.1 1.0 65.8 62.8 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 18.1 18.7 16.3 0.9 65.0 62.4 16.9 17.9 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 18.2 18.8 16.2 1.0 67.5 64.7 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 18.7 19.4 15.4 0.9 65.0 62.2 17.4 18.4 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.8 16.8 0.8 63.7 61.2 16.3 17.1 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 17.6 18.2 14.6 1.0 65.4 62.3 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 17.9 18.4 17.2 0.8 64.7 62.1 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.5 13.1 12.2 1.0 65.6 62.2 11.2 12.2 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 18.9 18.9 17.3 1.0 66.2 63.2 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.5 16.8 0.8 63.6 61.2 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 18.8 18.8 17.5 1.0 66.7 63.8 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.9 18.5 16.3 1.0 65.6 62.7 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 18.8 18.9 16.2 1.1 68.5 65.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 17.5 18.4 14.3 1.1 69.6 65.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 18.7 18.8 16.8 1.1 68.5 65.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 18.3 18.9 15.4 0.9 65.7 63.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.5 13.1 13.8 0.9 64.7 61.6 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 17.9 18.5 17.2 0.8 64.9 62.1 16.7 17.7 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------