***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.6 9.1 67.3 49.2 39.1 3.2 5.7 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.3 9.9 80.9 55.0 42.0 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.8 9.7 74.6 51.5 39.6 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.5 6.4 9.3 55.5 42.1 32.8 4.8 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.7 9.3 58.5 44.7 35.0 3.8 6.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.6 2.8 7.2 40.0 29.7 26.0 3.1 5.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.1 9.6 79.2 53.9 41.6 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 4.2 6.4 10.1 52.0 37.8 29.0 5.5 9.6 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.0 9.3 59.2 43.9 35.3 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.7 10.2 54.7 39.9 31.5 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.8 4.3 9.0 55.2 42.5 32.6 3.2 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.8 3.0 9.0 52.2 39.2 29.9 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.4 3.2 8.8 47.1 37.0 29.9 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.8 6.2 11.7 65.3 46.4 35.2 4.2 6.8 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.5 7.9 54.5 45.2 33.2 2.4 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.8 8.2 48.9 38.4 30.7 3.2 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.1 10.9 90.6 59.4 44.7 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.3 10.2 53.7 38.8 30.7 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.2 9.9 79.3 53.9 41.1 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 2.8 3.8 10.2 46.7 33.5 27.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.0 8.5 58.6 44.6 35.6 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.5 10.6 86.5 57.4 45.2 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.0 5.3 9.6 71.7 50.0 39.0 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.0 10.8 65.9 46.8 35.7 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.5 10.0 62.5 47.4 38.5 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.4 2.8 8.4 47.1 35.9 30.2 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.1 9.5 65.7 48.4 39.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.2 3.5 8.6 53.9 42.1 31.8 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 3.9 5.8 10.5 53.4 37.8 29.7 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.8 9.5 77.9 53.6 41.5 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------