***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.7 14.1 96.6 60.1 49.0 5.5 10.1 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.1 13.5 106.3 64.4 54.0 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.0 14.6 102.5 62.3 49.8 6.3 10.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 13.1 25.1 17.1 107.2 64.8 51.7 13.0 18.9 25.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.3 18.4 15.2 97.6 60.5 48.3 9.4 14.5 20.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.7 17.1 103.5 62.4 52.7 8.5 13.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.9 12.6 97.1 60.2 51.0 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 25.0 28.3 17.9 109.5 65.3 54.6 15.7 21.8 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.1 16.7 17.0 109.4 65.5 51.9 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.9 21.7 18.7 112.3 66.6 53.7 9.7 14.9 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.7 18.5 16.5 102.9 62.0 50.4 8.6 13.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.0 16.7 110.8 65.7 55.8 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.8 19.8 18.1 107.9 64.4 55.2 8.2 13.7 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.1 21.0 19.8 109.9 65.3 52.3 8.7 14.4 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.3 18.7 17.9 122.5 70.4 56.5 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.6 18.2 16.7 103.9 62.6 52.3 8.3 13.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.5 13.3 106.4 64.4 53.1 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 18.9 20.6 113.1 66.4 54.0 9.6 13.8 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.6 13.9 107.1 64.7 53.3 5.6 10.4 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.6 20.9 105.8 62.0 52.7 7.9 12.0 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.4 16.2 16.3 108.0 64.8 52.4 7.2 11.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.2 14.8 14.5 108.9 65.3 53.2 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.0 16.4 15.1 107.4 64.6 51.1 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.4 16.8 18.5 108.6 64.9 51.2 7.0 11.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.5 14.2 15.1 89.3 56.3 45.8 7.6 12.2 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.7 17.9 16.9 106.2 63.7 55.5 8.7 13.3 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.2 15.2 14.7 92.1 57.9 47.4 7.1 12.3 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.1 20.0 17.1 114.8 67.6 54.2 7.6 12.7 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.7 25.6 21.1 108.0 63.9 53.0 12.8 19.1 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.9 13.3 100.7 61.8 51.2 4.5 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------