***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.8 15.9 100.8 63.2 50.0 4.8 9.1 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.1 13.2 92.4 59.9 48.2 4.2 7.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.1 17.2 15.6 103.7 64.1 51.4 6.8 11.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.7 20.0 17.1 99.0 62.6 49.7 11.7 16.2 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.3 17.8 16.6 98.4 62.4 50.0 8.2 13.2 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.7 15.2 19.3 103.8 63.1 51.3 7.4 11.4 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.0 13.2 92.6 59.9 47.7 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.1 27.9 18.3 100.8 62.3 50.3 16.7 22.8 29.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.6 17.8 101.5 63.3 51.4 7.5 12.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.8 19.5 101.1 62.5 51.3 8.0 13.5 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.0 15.8 96.9 61.9 49.2 8.0 12.7 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.2 16.5 16.3 101.1 62.9 49.6 7.9 12.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.5 20.2 18.8 104.7 64.1 52.5 9.9 15.0 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 17.9 19.6 103.3 63.2 54.3 6.9 12.2 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.8 15.4 15.7 96.7 62.4 48.0 6.6 11.0 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.4 17.0 100.1 62.8 50.4 7.9 12.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.9 11.9 85.5 57.0 46.1 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 19.1 21.0 103.1 62.7 53.0 9.2 14.3 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.3 13.9 95.3 61.0 49.4 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 17.5 21.9 104.6 63.0 52.9 9.1 13.4 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.0 16.3 16.7 103.3 64.2 51.6 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.6 12.7 86.5 57.1 45.9 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.3 15.0 99.6 62.6 51.7 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.1 20.5 18.6 102.7 63.0 52.8 8.7 14.6 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.9 15.2 17.5 97.9 61.7 49.2 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.7 15.0 17.2 106.6 64.7 52.0 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.0 16.8 100.1 62.6 49.9 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.1 15.2 16.8 99.8 63.0 49.6 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 22.7 21.3 103.9 62.7 52.9 11.3 17.2 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.2 14.1 97.3 61.8 49.0 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------