***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 13.2 16.5 98.5 62.5 52.1 6.0 9.7 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.3 13.7 91.8 59.6 46.9 3.1 6.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.6 12.8 16.2 104.7 64.7 53.7 5.0 8.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 15.2 19.1 107.2 65.4 53.3 5.9 10.0 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.7 19.1 110.4 66.6 55.4 4.3 7.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.9 21.1 107.9 64.8 52.2 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.6 14.3 95.7 60.9 48.0 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 20.4 19.8 106.8 64.5 54.1 9.4 14.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.7 19.4 110.1 66.4 55.5 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.7 21.1 107.2 64.8 54.5 4.8 8.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.5 18.8 111.6 66.8 55.0 4.1 7.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 12.2 18.5 109.7 66.0 53.8 3.9 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.5 20.9 107.2 64.7 52.9 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.6 14.2 20.1 100.2 62.4 51.5 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.3 18.1 108.3 66.5 51.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.7 19.9 110.0 66.0 53.5 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.5 13.2 89.7 58.8 46.4 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 14.5 22.1 105.7 64.0 53.8 5.6 9.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.3 14.0 92.8 60.2 47.9 3.7 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 12.0 21.5 100.0 61.3 52.4 5.1 8.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.7 17.6 107.4 65.7 54.5 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.9 13.6 88.6 58.7 46.5 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.7 15.0 97.4 62.2 50.1 3.4 6.2 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 13.9 19.6 107.5 65.3 54.5 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.6 18.7 101.2 63.2 53.6 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.3 18.4 104.8 63.9 50.5 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.6 17.5 98.2 62.2 52.6 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.7 19.2 109.3 66.3 52.7 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 19.3 22.0 105.0 63.5 53.4 7.7 13.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.3 14.3 93.6 60.3 48.4 3.7 6.7 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------