***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 32.7 45.4 55.5 91.7 50.4 46.7 33.3 44.9 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 23.9 37.8 50.4 92.9 51.5 46.2 26.7 36.9 48.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 33.6 50.4 56.2 97.0 54.5 49.3 34.8 46.9 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 50.8 63.8 62.6 92.3 51.0 47.3 51.9 63.1 74.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 35.0 49.6 60.2 91.7 50.4 46.9 35.2 49.3 65.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 51.6 44.7 64.7 89.1 46.0 44.2 37.3 47.0 57.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.5 35.3 49.6 91.5 50.4 45.5 24.3 34.8 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 87.1 79.8 66.1 91.1 47.9 45.5 69.3 81.3 93.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 52.1 48.6 63.5 95.6 53.2 48.9 34.9 46.4 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 61.3 55.6 69.5 93.3 50.0 46.8 43.9 55.6 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 54.5 48.2 60.2 91.6 49.5 46.5 37.3 48.5 60.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 54.6 49.5 60.5 92.6 50.1 47.1 39.6 49.5 60.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 58.1 52.0 66.7 91.4 48.6 46.1 43.1 53.0 63.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 62.3 57.2 71.2 95.0 51.8 48.0 43.8 56.0 69.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 30.5 45.6 59.6 96.1 55.1 50.6 30.5 41.7 54.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 54.4 47.7 61.8 90.9 48.7 46.2 37.0 48.5 61.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 25.1 37.8 49.3 92.7 51.2 45.6 27.4 37.1 48.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 57.2 52.4 74.0 93.8 50.0 46.5 42.0 52.4 63.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 24.5 40.6 51.8 93.8 52.1 46.8 27.0 39.0 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 53.6 45.0 74.4 88.2 44.2 42.9 38.2 48.7 59.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 31.1 44.7 59.1 95.0 53.1 48.4 31.6 42.5 54.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 24.5 37.2 51.5 92.4 50.8 46.0 26.2 36.8 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.4 41.0 54.6 94.5 52.3 47.3 29.4 39.4 51.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 58.7 55.3 67.6 96.7 53.3 48.5 41.9 52.9 65.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 35.6 47.1 61.3 88.5 47.4 45.1 36.7 48.9 62.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 50.8 44.3 60.9 90.3 47.3 45.5 36.7 45.9 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 31.6 44.1 58.6 89.9 48.7 45.7 31.8 45.2 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 35.7 47.8 61.6 94.4 52.8 48.9 36.0 46.1 57.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 77.6 70.0 74.8 92.6 48.7 45.7 57.0 70.9 85.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 25.4 36.7 51.2 92.8 51.4 46.4 26.8 36.0 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------