***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 10.1 9.9 1.3 71.8 65.6 7.7 8.8 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.9 9.6 1.3 71.4 65.5 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.6 9.7 1.2 71.6 65.5 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.6 7.2 1.3 73.9 68.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.3 7.2 1.2 72.9 67.3 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.9 5.4 1.3 74.9 69.6 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.9 9.6 1.3 71.6 65.8 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.6 1.9 5.1 1.2 73.4 67.9 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.8 7.4 1.1 71.3 66.1 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.7 5.9 1.2 71.8 66.6 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.3 6.6 1.3 74.1 68.3 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.6 5.8 1.2 74.0 68.3 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.7 5.5 1.3 73.1 67.4 5.7 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.4 7.4 1.1 71.1 65.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.4 8.3 1.3 74.3 68.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.5 6.2 1.3 74.1 68.4 6.9 7.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.7 9.9 9.4 1.3 72.0 66.2 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.8 5.2 1.1 70.6 65.6 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 9.3 9.7 9.5 1.3 71.8 65.7 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.6 3.3 1.3 71.7 66.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.9 8.9 1.2 71.5 65.7 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.2 9.2 1.3 72.5 66.5 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 9.0 9.3 9.3 1.3 72.7 66.3 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.6 7.1 1.1 70.7 65.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.3 9.8 8.5 1.4 72.9 66.7 6.6 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.8 5.4 1.4 76.8 70.0 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 9.9 10.4 9.3 1.4 72.2 66.1 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.5 7.4 1.3 73.4 68.0 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.4 4.6 1.1 71.0 65.9 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 9.8 10.1 9.7 1.3 71.4 65.4 7.0 8.4 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------