***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.0 8.2 1.3 78.0 72.0 6.2 6.9 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.7 8.0 1.2 78.3 72.6 5.6 6.3 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.7 8.3 1.2 78.4 72.8 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 3.7 4.2 5.6 1.3 78.3 73.4 2.0 2.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.6 6.0 1.2 78.0 73.4 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 5.1 5.4 3.7 1.3 78.0 74.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.4 7.8 8.0 1.2 77.9 72.5 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -0.2 0.2 3.6 1.2 77.4 73.3 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.3 6.2 1.3 80.3 75.3 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.2 4.5 1.2 77.8 73.4 5.4 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.0 5.3 1.3 79.5 75.0 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.5 4.4 1.2 77.1 73.2 3.7 4.3 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.4 4.2 1.1 75.8 72.1 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.7 6.1 1.2 79.1 73.5 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.7 6.8 1.3 80.3 75.2 6.1 6.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.7 4.9 1.2 77.8 73.8 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 7.4 7.8 7.8 1.2 77.9 72.4 6.0 6.6 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.6 5.0 3.9 1.2 76.9 72.4 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 7.2 7.7 8.0 1.3 79.3 73.3 5.6 6.3 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.2 75.8 71.8 0.6 1.3 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.9 7.4 7.5 1.2 78.3 73.0 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.0 7.7 1.2 78.8 73.1 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 6.8 7.3 7.8 1.3 81.2 74.8 5.3 6.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 6.6 7.0 5.9 1.2 78.4 73.2 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.5 7.1 1.2 77.1 71.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 5.9 6.3 3.9 1.3 78.5 74.3 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.3 7.7 1.2 76.6 71.0 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.9 5.9 1.2 77.9 73.4 4.2 4.9 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 4.4 3.2 1.2 76.6 72.3 2.4 3.1 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 7.6 8.0 8.1 1.2 78.4 72.6 5.9 6.7 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------