***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 17.8 18.7 16.3 1.2 63.2 62.0 15.7 17.4 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 17.8 18.8 16.4 1.3 63.8 62.6 16.1 17.6 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 18.1 18.7 16.1 0.8 58.5 57.7 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 10.7 11.5 13.0 0.9 59.8 58.8 8.5 10.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 18.5 18.9 14.2 0.5 55.7 55.0 16.5 18.3 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 17.2 16.7 11.6 -0.1 49.4 49.2 14.9 16.8 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 17.7 18.6 16.3 1.3 64.7 63.5 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 5.7 5.3 11.9 0.0 50.0 49.8 3.7 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 18.1 18.4 15.2 0.6 55.8 55.1 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 18.3 18.0 13.0 0.1 50.8 50.5 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 18.3 18.4 14.4 0.4 53.7 53.1 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 17.3 17.3 13.0 0.3 53.0 52.5 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 18.2 17.8 13.5 0.0 49.9 49.6 16.0 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 18.0 18.2 15.0 0.4 54.1 53.6 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 18.1 19.2 15.7 1.3 64.3 63.0 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 18.7 18.6 13.6 0.3 52.8 52.3 16.5 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 16.9 17.8 16.0 1.3 63.9 62.6 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 17.8 17.3 12.1 -0.1 48.7 48.6 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 17.7 18.6 16.4 1.2 62.4 61.3 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 12.2 11.6 9.9 -0.3 47.4 47.5 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 18.2 18.5 15.9 0.6 55.8 55.1 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 17.6 18.5 16.1 1.2 62.7 61.5 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 17.9 18.7 16.3 1.0 60.4 59.4 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 17.9 17.9 14.6 0.2 51.8 51.5 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 18.0 18.7 15.0 0.9 59.7 58.7 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 17.3 17.2 11.9 0.2 52.2 51.7 15.2 16.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 18.1 18.9 15.7 1.1 61.9 60.8 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 18.3 19.0 13.9 0.8 59.1 58.2 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 12.5 11.9 11.5 -0.2 47.8 47.8 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 17.7 18.7 16.4 1.2 63.6 62.5 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------