***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.2 18.5 2.3 74.3 67.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.6 18.2 18.2 2.2 74.6 66.8 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 17.9 18.3 18.8 2.4 74.1 67.6 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.3 16.2 2.6 74.5 68.8 7.8 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 18.4 18.8 17.4 2.6 74.4 68.7 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.6 18.0 15.4 2.6 73.4 68.9 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 17.6 18.1 18.1 2.2 74.3 66.6 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.6 15.5 2.6 73.4 68.2 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 17.9 18.3 18.1 2.7 74.7 68.7 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 17.9 18.3 16.6 2.7 74.0 68.5 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.8 17.7 2.8 74.8 69.4 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.9 16.5 2.6 74.4 68.9 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 18.5 18.9 16.6 2.6 73.7 68.7 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.1 17.6 2.4 73.0 66.8 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.6 17.9 2.6 75.7 69.7 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 18.6 19.1 17.0 2.7 74.4 69.2 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.5 17.7 2.0 73.0 65.2 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.7 15.9 2.6 72.9 67.5 14.3 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 17.5 18.2 18.4 2.3 74.9 67.3 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.0 13.3 2.4 72.2 67.0 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 18.0 18.4 18.7 2.5 73.9 68.0 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.0 17.7 2.0 72.4 65.0 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 17.8 18.4 18.6 2.4 75.2 67.8 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 17.6 18.0 17.7 2.5 73.1 67.4 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.2 17.3 2.4 73.6 67.5 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.5 15.7 2.8 77.2 71.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.9 18.3 17.8 2.3 73.7 67.1 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.5 17.0 2.6 74.7 69.1 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.5 15.0 2.5 72.3 67.0 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.6 18.2 18.4 2.3 74.6 67.3 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------