***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 22.0 22.7 20.4 2.2 77.6 69.6 19.2 20.4 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 22.1 23.0 20.2 2.1 77.2 68.7 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 21.9 22.7 20.6 2.1 76.4 68.6 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.7 15.5 18.1 2.0 75.6 68.8 11.0 12.8 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 22.0 22.8 18.8 2.2 75.9 68.9 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 20.3 20.6 16.6 1.9 71.6 66.0 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 21.7 22.6 20.2 2.2 77.7 69.1 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 9.5 10.0 17.2 2.0 73.2 66.6 6.3 7.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 21.5 22.3 19.2 2.2 75.8 69.0 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 21.4 22.0 18.0 2.1 74.2 67.6 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 21.8 22.5 18.7 2.2 75.8 68.6 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 20.9 21.6 18.2 2.2 75.2 67.8 17.5 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 21.9 22.5 17.5 2.2 75.0 67.9 18.4 20.0 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 21.9 22.4 18.8 1.9 72.6 65.9 18.6 20.2 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 21.6 22.3 18.8 2.0 76.3 69.5 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 22.2 23.0 18.2 2.2 75.4 68.4 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 21.3 22.1 19.9 2.0 76.0 67.5 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 21.0 21.6 17.6 2.1 73.0 66.6 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 21.7 22.5 20.3 2.1 76.6 68.3 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 16.0 16.4 14.8 1.9 71.2 65.2 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 21.8 22.6 19.9 2.1 75.6 68.6 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 22.0 22.7 19.7 1.9 74.5 66.4 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 22.1 22.8 20.3 2.1 75.6 67.7 18.6 20.3 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 21.4 22.0 18.9 2.1 73.8 67.1 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 21.8 22.5 18.7 2.1 76.5 69.2 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 21.0 22.2 17.8 2.6 80.5 72.0 17.6 19.1 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 21.6 22.4 19.6 2.2 77.6 69.7 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 21.7 22.4 18.3 2.0 74.8 68.3 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 15.9 16.5 16.6 2.0 72.0 65.8 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 21.7 22.7 20.3 2.2 77.5 69.1 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------