***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.0 4.5 8.8 58.6 45.9 42.0 2.6 5.2 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 3.5 6.4 48.8 39.5 35.6 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.7 5.5 9.2 62.9 47.7 43.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 7.4 10.4 60.4 46.7 42.1 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.5 8.4 12.5 76.3 53.2 48.6 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.8 7.3 15.4 90.3 58.4 53.0 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.6 6.2 46.5 38.3 34.7 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 12.5 15.2 18.4 101.9 62.6 57.3 5.5 10.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.1 7.3 12.4 78.2 53.9 49.3 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.4 10.4 17.3 94.2 59.8 54.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.3 12.4 75.6 52.9 48.0 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.1 7.6 14.5 91.7 58.8 53.2 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.0 7.0 14.7 84.0 55.9 50.2 3.1 5.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.2 14.8 81.7 55.0 49.7 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.2 7.4 49.8 44.7 38.9 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.0 6.3 12.4 74.2 52.4 47.3 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.2 5.8 44.7 37.6 33.5 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 10.2 20.1 104.0 63.4 58.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.1 7.2 54.1 42.4 37.9 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 8.3 11.4 23.6 114.5 67.4 62.7 3.9 7.0 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.3 5.8 10.9 70.4 50.6 46.4 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.9 6.4 48.6 39.5 34.3 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.4 5.2 8.6 60.8 45.9 41.2 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 7.9 7.9 14.6 85.3 56.4 51.2 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.9 5.7 10.6 61.9 47.7 43.4 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 6.5 7.6 15.7 96.0 60.7 55.3 2.8 5.3 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.7 9.7 60.9 47.0 42.9 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.0 10.9 65.3 50.0 44.5 2.8 5.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.4 15.1 20.7 105.6 64.0 59.4 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.5 7.1 52.3 41.3 37.1 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------