***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.2 12.1 14.0 91.2 58.0 47.1 4.8 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.4 11.9 88.0 57.0 47.2 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.9 13.4 13.0 85.2 55.3 45.6 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.6 18.7 12.8 77.2 51.6 44.1 12.2 18.1 25.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.0 13.4 12.7 73.6 49.3 41.7 9.0 13.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.5 12.6 13.6 76.5 48.3 40.1 8.6 13.1 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.1 11.7 87.3 57.2 46.5 5.5 9.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.6 22.1 13.4 75.9 49.5 42.1 16.2 22.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.9 10.8 13.3 76.7 50.8 42.4 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.1 14.3 14.0 76.3 50.0 42.5 9.1 14.3 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.6 12.3 13.4 75.4 48.3 41.7 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.2 12.1 12.1 73.1 48.0 41.1 8.1 12.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.7 12.6 13.1 73.1 48.4 41.3 7.8 13.2 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.6 15.7 15.4 79.4 51.3 43.1 9.7 15.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.4 11.6 11.5 77.1 53.3 43.3 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.3 12.7 12.8 75.6 48.9 41.9 8.2 13.1 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.0 11.4 86.4 56.5 46.0 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 12.4 14.8 76.5 48.9 41.2 8.6 12.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.5 12.2 87.8 56.9 47.1 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.1 11.3 15.6 75.0 48.2 40.2 7.6 11.8 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.6 11.4 13.0 79.0 51.8 42.5 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.7 12.6 91.3 58.3 47.4 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.4 12.8 12.7 85.4 55.3 45.6 6.4 11.0 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.5 14.3 78.1 50.1 41.9 6.5 11.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.1 15.2 86.1 55.0 45.2 6.5 11.3 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.3 13.0 13.3 77.1 49.5 40.7 8.9 13.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.1 15.1 15.1 91.6 57.7 46.9 6.7 12.1 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.8 12.5 11.2 71.5 49.6 41.4 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.7 18.1 16.2 79.2 49.9 41.8 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.2 12.1 87.8 56.9 47.2 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------