***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.4 14.9 13.7 94.8 60.8 44.1 5.4 10.5 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.8 12.4 101.2 63.3 48.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.9 15.3 13.2 96.0 61.5 45.7 5.8 10.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.9 17.5 13.6 87.4 58.1 45.8 9.0 14.3 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.0 12.6 84.3 56.6 45.5 6.2 11.5 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.8 12.7 14.6 85.2 54.4 43.6 7.2 11.4 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.2 13.0 107.0 65.3 50.0 4.9 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.9 14.7 91.7 58.8 49.8 16.0 21.6 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.4 13.5 86.2 57.3 46.6 5.5 10.5 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.3 14.8 86.9 56.8 48.3 7.4 12.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.2 14.7 12.1 86.1 56.9 46.5 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.5 15.5 13.2 93.7 59.9 48.4 8.5 12.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.6 16.7 14.5 90.5 57.5 45.7 8.6 13.9 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.1 16.4 17.0 96.5 61.3 47.7 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 15.6 13.9 95.5 62.0 46.5 6.7 11.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.2 15.3 13.2 89.4 57.6 45.6 7.7 12.6 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.5 12.2 102.1 63.4 49.3 4.8 8.9 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.8 16.1 89.4 58.1 49.7 7.7 12.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.0 12.4 98.3 62.2 47.2 5.5 9.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 15.5 18.8 99.6 61.9 53.9 6.6 11.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.1 12.8 87.2 58.3 45.3 5.9 10.3 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.8 13.1 104.7 64.6 48.9 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.7 13.0 98.7 62.5 46.8 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.2 16.9 15.2 93.1 60.0 48.0 6.5 12.2 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.8 13.6 14.3 86.9 57.6 44.1 4.8 10.1 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.4 14.7 96.6 60.4 47.0 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.1 14.3 14.3 93.3 60.3 44.5 5.1 10.2 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.3 13.2 88.0 58.2 45.0 5.4 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.7 20.5 17.8 96.7 61.0 52.3 8.8 15.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.7 13.2 105.8 64.9 48.3 4.1 7.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------